announcer: Funding for "The Hinckley Report" is made possible in part by the Cleone Peterson Eccles Endowment Fund.

Jason Perry: Tonight, on "The Hinckley Report."

The Senate race heats up as high profile names throw their hat in the ring.

Changes in Utah's leadership could have major impacts both nationally and locally.

And as campaigns prepare for the general election, candidates race to raise funds and connect with voters.

♪♪♪ ♪♪♪ Jason Perry: Good evening, and welcome to "The Hinckley Report."

I'm Jason Perry, Director of the Hinckley Institute of Politics.

Covering the week we have Dennis Romboy, editor and reporter with the Deseret News; Kate Bradshaw, member of the Bountiful City Council; and Chris Blake, partner with RRJ Consulting.

So glad you're here this evening.

This has been an interesting week in politics.

I want to start with something that is sort of emerging here.

The chess board is being set up for the Senate race now that Senator Romney has announced that he is not going to run again.

We have some names that have announced, some names are about to announce, and you're all going to get a chance to talk about people who may come forward here in the very near future.

Dennis, let's start with you a little bit, because there are some names we know already.

For example, Trent Staggs is one of those, and Rod Bird is one of those.

Already know that they are on.

Dennis Romboy: The mayor of Riverton, Trent Staggs, yeah, Rod Bird from Roosevelt, I believe.

Not really household names around the state, but we expect House Speaker Brad Wilson to announce next week.

He's been having an exploratory committee for months now and has raised over $2 million, including a million dollar loan to his campaign from himself.

So, those are some of the names, and then we have others who have not announced who we've just been speculating about, including Jason Chaffetz and Representative John Curtis.

Jason Perry: Let's get to a couple of those and see what those paths would look like, Kate, because it's different for all of them.

On Trent Staggs, he has had some people already trying to come to the state.

Kari Lake was here to help fundraise, maybe give us a preview for what that means and sort of the path for these names that we don't necessarily know very well yet.

Kate Bradshaw: Well, so the path is going to be expensive.

The election season is already starting even though we're well ahead of the 2024 election cycle.

Candidates will need to decide if they're going to do the signature gathering path or the caucus convention path.

The filing is moved up a little bit this coming year into early January, so that starts the season, you know, just a little bit ahead of where we've been in previous years.

if you're, you know, somebody without a lot of name ID, you're gonna need to fundraise so that you can help build that name ID.

And you may be picking a path that helps you maybe with a more budget conscious path through the caucus convention.

But there's still some other names that we expect to come out.

You know, Congressman Curtis obviously has great name ID, former congressman Jason Chaffetz has some significant name ID.

And so, those may be helpful factors.

There's some other people that I'd love to see perhaps put forward their name.

Lieutenant Governor Deidre Henderson is somebody I think is a very intriguing and interesting candidate.

And another one that would also be worth noting would be Mayor Dawn Ramsey of South Jordan.

who's played a significant role for the Utah League of Cities and towns over the last few years.

Chris Bleak: One of the interesting things that Utah has not traditionally elevated a sitting congressman to the Senate or a sitting legislator, that those two have always had trouble kind of moving to that next level, whatever that might be.

And I think we're going to see that broken this year.

You obviously have Speaker Wilson, who's come out strong, raised money, is running very lean campaign, setting himself up for success.

If John Curtis decides to get to get in the race, John is a excellent politician, has a really fervent base that supports him.

And so, those two would be, I think, would be immediately the front runners, but you could see some others.

I know Blake Moore looked at it, Burgess Owens looked at it as those.

And so, there absolutely is going to be something unique here in that I think we're likely to see somebody elevate from a lower position unless we see that kind of outside business-type person come in and get in the race and spend a lot of money, which there's no names--no big names that are out there right now on that.

Dennis Romboy: It's gonna be interesting to see who's gonna take the signature gathering route as opposed to the convention route.

That seemed to differentiate candidates, and I suspect we'll have a, you know, a fairly hefty slate come Republican primary next year.

Jason Perry: Kate, talk about that.

You--because you brought up a moment ago too, it is interesting, because there was a time when, you know, when you have a different candidate sometimes coming out of convention than the person that would win.

A lot of people, including Congressman Curtis, have opted at some point to not get signatures, and I don't know that's gonna be a decision he makes again.

How is it playing with people you're talking to?

Is it still a big deal if you do or you don't get those signatures in terms of those-- the more conservative Republicans in the state?

Kate Bradshaw: If you are a Republican delegate, then it matters a lot, and Republican delegates very much want to see candidates choose only the caucus convention path.

They very much believe in that path and process.

Many elected officials, and, you know, most state legislators, for example, are actually doing a dual path, especially if you think you might have a challenger within your party.

And so, I expect that you'll see most of the serious candidates consider both paths to both signature gather and do the caucus convention.

Our state laws allow that.

You know, we have seen a very interesting recent example in our second congressional district Republican primary where, you know, Celeste Malloy came out as the winner of the Republican primary, but she was the caucus convention choice.

A little bit of a surprise choice.

Excited to see that happen.

It definitely shows that a candidate with less name ID and a modest budget can be successful in that arena and then be successful among Republicans as a whole.

And so, those candidates, they're looking at this US Senate seat, I'm sure will be drawing conclusions from this very recent example.

Dennis Romboy: I think that's the first time that's happened since we've had the dual path, isn't it?

That the convention winner has actually won the election.

John Curtis, his first election was not--he took the signature route and won the election there.

Voters don't seem to care about that as much as delegates do.

Jason Perry: I think you may have seen Senator Lee at one point also try that path, Chris, but-- Chris Bleak: I was just gonna say, I think it's political malpractice not to go get signatures.

And we've seen examples of that on the state House level.

There are those folks that have not gone through that probably probably would have or would have had a much better chance.

And so, I agree with Kate, every serious candidate will go both routes.

You may have some candidates that decide they don't want to spend the money to go get signatures because it is an expensive proposition and might go the convention-only route and then use that as their selling point.

But to Dennis's point, the voters don't care because they want to vote for candidates for Senate, and they're gonna have those options.

Jason Perry: So, I think on Wednesday, Kate, is when we're going to see this announcement from Speaker Brad Wilson, and he's got a slate of people it sounds like will be behind him as he does it.

Kate Bradshaw: I think there will be.

He has been on a campaign of meeting with local government officials, quite frankly, for months.

So, he has been working to hear from locally elected officials, he's obviously very popular among his colleagues at the State House.

You know, we heard recently from the governor that he's a fan as well.

Stopped just short of an endorsement, but clearly declared that he was very interested in his campaign.

And he's got a lot of fans among the State Senate as well.

So, I expect there'll be a robust crowd with Speaker Wilson next week as he makes the announcement that we've all been expecting for many, many months.

Dennis Romboy: All that said, I don't know that Utahns really know Brad Wilson, and he'll have opportunity over the next few months to make himself known.

I don't think that he has that name recognition as a John Curtis or a Jason Chaffetz might if they decide to get into the race.

Jason Perry: Yeah, take that up for a second, Chris.

You were the chief of staff for a Speaker of the House.

In political circles we often know exactly who that person is.

Does that translate necessarily outside of political circles?

Chris Bleak: No, and that is the problem that Speaker Wilson has.

I think it--what is impressive that Speaker Wilson has done is both raised a lot of money and contributed money.

He has a very successful business career to lean on in addition to his political career, which I think has been largely very successful.

And so, he does have a record to stand on, but he also has money to back that up, and he's going to need it in order to share who he is, what he has, what he has done and accomplished.

Jason Perry: So, before we leave it, Kate, because the name ID and the money, those are two absolutely critical components, and the interesting candidates-- candidate we may see in the near future is Congressman John Curtis.

I know you're watching, you're talking to a lot of folks about that.

Is there a path for him?

And how many of these big sort of funders are being locked up already?

And when he comes, what does he bring?

Kate Bradshaw: So, John Curtis is an interesting candidate, very popular mayor of Provo before he ran for Congress, so he's got a base particularly in Utah County, in Provo, and then, of course, in his district.

He is well liked within the state, he, you know, he polls well.

He would bring, I think, a national fundraising base that is maybe a little bit different from the base that Brad Wilson has been pulling from.

But you are limited into what people can give in these cycles.

You're not able to utilize the same rules we have at the state level, so Brad Wilson has done a good job of locking up a lot of state level money.

I know he's talking to a lot of these national PACs and other organizations, but John Curtis is a known quantity and has known those people a lot longer.

Jason Perry: We may see other people jump in, including Boyd Matheson, who's been on our show a couple of times.

But one, Dennis, we should talk about for a moment too because there's a lot of headlines is Tim Ballard.

That was a name we're hearing may run, a little bit of controversy.

Dennis Romboy: Yeah, he comes with some serious allegations, some baggage, I guess you could say.

I don't know how serious he is about running.

He definitely has a base of supporters regardless of any allegations that are pending against him.

And he's, you know, even the LDS church came out and made a statement about him, which he kind of, you know, questioned whether it was authentic or not, and just there's a lot of controversy swirling around him at this point.

Chris Bleak: I think one of the interesting things about Tim Ballard prior to the allegations is what is the role of celebrity?

I use that term a little bit loosely, but in--within Utah circles, there is a little bit of a celebrity dynamic there, and we see more and more candidates trading on their celebrity in order to get into political office.

And we've seen that a lot over the last 15, 20 years, including President Trump.

But not a great way to kick off a Senate campaign, right?

I mean, he had AG Reyes sort of promoting him without using the name, but it seemed pretty obvious that it was going to be Tim Ballard, and then this last weekend the allegations from the church and some of the news stories, not a great way to start a Senate campaign.

It'll be interesting to see if he even sticks around.

Jason Perry: And who may endorse or not endorse now after all this has happened.

It's interesting, because as we have these changes, as people are resigning and in this past week, since we're talking about Speaker Brad Wilson, he announced his resignation, that he will be making an announcement later that we know will be happening on Wednesday.

But it changes the dynamic of our House considerably in the state of Utah.

And, Kate, maybe talk for a moment about that because we will get a new Speaker of the House in not very distant future.

Talk about the people who are emerging, who are the--at least vying for the position.

So, the House Majority Caucus will need to pick a new Speaker of the House.

They'll do that right here at the end of the year, and there are two candidates that have emerged.

The front runner is Representative Mike Schultz, who's currently the House Majority Leader.

Jason Perry: From Hooper.

Kate Bradshaw: From Hooper.

And he very much is the front runner in this leadership race.

And then Representative Melissa Garff Ballard from North Salt Lake has announced that she will challenge as well.

She's probably the dark horse candidate, a little bit more of an unclear path to victory.

Mike Schultz has been the majority leader now for several years, he's worked very closely with Brad Wilson.

You know, he has served alongside several other speakers, he's, you know, very close with former speaker Greg Hughes, for example.

So, it's probably his race to lose in terms of what we expect to see.

You know, that will shake up the entire leadership chain.

If someone moves at the top, all the other positions, you know, shuffle around as well.

And so, we expect to see, for instance, you know, Jefferson Moss of Lehi will likely, you know, move into that majority leader's spot.

Jason Perry: Chris, talk about how unique or not this is when you have these leadership elections, maybe just a little bit about how that works, given your experience in the House, and what it means that Schultz is being challenged by Melissa Garff Ballard.

Chris Bleak: Yeah, a couple of things.

First, we've had a couple of changes in leadership elections.

I believe this is Representative Jeff Moss's fourth year in a row or third year in a row that he'll run for a leadership election, because typically leadership elections in the House and Senate last over the course of the two year period.

So, they elect him shortly after the elections and move forward.

But we've had a couple of elections for leadership changes as people have come and gone.

And so, that is a little bit unique here.

So, I guess maybe it's not unique.

Now we're seeing more changes and more people running.

I suspect that Representative Schultz, who has really been viewed as leadership or speaker material from the get go, he's a hard negotiator, he's invested in the issues, he spends a lot of time, will be a really excellent speaker, and we'll have, you know, we'll have a lot of challenges that we're going to see the budget sort of tailing off.

And so, he's coming in at a time that's gonna be a real challenge based on what he's seen the last couple of years.

Kate Bradshaw: You know, he's known, for instance, for really being kind of a caucus leader.

That's one of the--kind of his hallmarks, I think, up at the State Capitol.

He's very supportive of his caucus, he invests a lot in his caucus, in helping them move forward their bills and ideas.

You know, he's often helping his caucus negotiate things that they have staked out as caucus positions.

And I think, you know, that lends itself clearly to his leadership race.

Chris Bleak: And I think this is a hallmark of Speaker Wilson, who's really tried to focus the legislature.

Even this week, they were down in Saint George, held their long term planning conference.

He's tried to focus the legislature on, yes, we have immediate issues and needs and things that pop up, and the legislature is often very responsive or reactive in that way.

But let's look down the road.

What are issues that are going to be impactful and how can we solve them or take steps now to move forward?

We see that as it relates to the Great Salt Lake, for example.

And so, it'll be interesting to see how Representative Schultz incorporates some of that-- those items that he's learned as he moves forward, because that certainly was a hallmark of Speaker Wilson's tenure as Speaker.

Jason Perry: For the sake of the viewers too, is this--this vote, how this happens, is it secret?

Do you know who's voting for you?

How does that happen again?

Chris Bleak: One of the things that's interesting, speaker is a little bit different than the other leadership posts.

Although the--because of the numbers within the State House and State Senate, the Republican caucus will gather together and will elect by secret ballot who will be speaker, so you don't actually know who votes for you, and that creates some interesting dynamics and dilemmas.

But the speaker itself will actually be ratified by the entire House on day one of the upcoming session or an upcoming session, because that is the Speaker of the House, and all members get to vote on that person.

We saw that, for example, with Kevin McCarthy, who went through multiple votes, the Democrats always voting for Hakeem Jeffries.

The State House will do something similar, although I don't believe there's ever been a case where it hasn't been a unanimous vote, largely because of the numbers here in the state.

Jason Perry: So interesting how that works out.

I remember former speaker saying, "I'm gonna go write 30 thank you notes for the 15 votes I got."

You know, so they just don't know how that works out.

Dennis, there are a couple other interesting resignations, people moving out of the legislature.

Representative Quinn Kotter from West Valley is--has announced his resignation, Senator Jake Anderegg from Lehi has announced his resignation as well.

Talk about those two things and how this plays with the dynamic.

Dennis Romboy: Well, you know, I don't know Representative Carter as well as I know Senator Anderegg.

There's always turnover, it seems like to me, in the legislature.

Doesn't always come during, you know, in the middle of an election or in the middle of a session or whatever it might be, but that changes the dynamic some and, you know, there's an interesting candidate, actually, or two looking for--to replace Senator Anderegg Egg and Becky Lockhart, former speaker Becky Lockhart's daughter is now running for that Senate seat.

Jason Perry: Yeah, Emily Lockhart, yeah, daughter of former speaker Becky Lockhart.

Dennis Romboy: So, yeah, so I think that's interesting to watch.

Jason Perry: Let's talk about this other resignation that's going to have pretty significant impacts.

And we talked about the race a little bit here, Kate, but Congressman Stewart, he's officially leaving, and it changes a lot about what's going to happen in the House in Washington, D.C.

This is a Utah play that is going to have some impacts.

Talk about some of those, including a little bit about some of the responsibilities he had that he--we are losing maybe potentially from the state of Utah.

Kate Bradshaw: Congressman Stewart was the senior member of our delegation.

So, he was the keeper of the wisdom of the state in terms of our delegation.

And so, with his resignation, you know, we lose some of that.

Others will need to step up and be that senior leader for the state.

He held significant committee assignments.

When you bring someone new in, obviously, that seniority doesn't transfer, you know, they go back to being the bottom of the seniority list and have to work and climb their way up.

The other significant factor is, of course, that there are thin margins in the US House.

You know, nine votes, and with his resignation, they will go to an eight vote margin, and that becomes particularly relevant right now this week as budget issues play out and whether they will be able to move forward something that the Republican caucus can support or whether they'll have to depend on Democratic votes, because now the margin is just that one vote thinner.

Jason Perry: Yeah, I want to get to that government shutdown vote and the vote will be coming up here in just a minute, but before we leave this one, Chris, as someone who does some work lobbying, Congressman Stewart announced recently that he is going to be joining a new lobbying firm in Washington, D.C., called Skyline Capital.

And he's doing this with Robert O'Brien, the former national security adviser to President Trump.

He's made that announcement, talk about what that means.

Chris Bleak: You know, I think it's a well worn path to go from Congress to lobbying.

And I won't criticize anyone for that.

There are certain rules and obligations that he has to abide by that, including that he can't lobby his former members for up to one year.

And so, you know, what he will likely do is what a lot of people do, including former congressman Jim Matheson, Bob Bennett, a number went this path here even from Utah, is they will advise companies on what they might look for, what members might be interested in.

Whether he'll actually ever register to lobby at some point in his career, I guess we'll see.

Some do, some don't, but a well worn path, and one that, you know, hard to fault him for doing it if that's what he thinks is best.

Jason Perry: I know people talk about this, Kate, about that path, which has happened.

And as Chris mentioned, there are some ethical rules that do guide what they can and can't do.

I just wanted to read this graphic so our viewers will know how this works, because there are things put in place.

And for Congressmen Stewart in particular, as he leaves, this is section 207, imposes a one year cooling off period, and this is the rule.

"A former Member may not seek official action from any current Member, officer, or employee of either the Senate or the House, or," and this is the interesting part, "any current employee of any other legislative office."

Kate Bradshaw: So, as Chris mentioned, it's a well worn path, and the playbook is well known.

So, for this next year, while he serves that cooling off period, he'll be consulting.

He won't be talking to his former colleagues, but somebody who understands how the game is played from the inside is valuable.

And so, he will be offering that insight to various interests, helping them understand who the key players are, helping them refine their message, helping them understand that the political process, how the sausage is made, and so that obviously is important information and insight.

And he may stay in that role as a kind of an outside consultant for a long time.

As Chris mentioned, you don't, you know, there's many former elected officials that stay in that role, or maybe he'll move to the active part where he's up in the hallways at the US Capitol, hanging out in the lobby.

Dennis Romboy: And that might serve him well, to not do this lobbying for a year, because he's, as we know, he resigned to take care of his wife, who had a stroke.

And, you know, he told me he doesn't expect to travel a lot in this new position and, you know, to be home more with her.

So, that might work well for him until he has the opportunity to lobby more, you know, face to face.

Chris Bleak: Well, and one of the other parts that could be interesting, you mentioned Robert O'Brien, former national security adviser to President Trump, is joining him or they have some sort of strategic alliance.

Representative Stewart was often looked at as a possible Secretary of the Air Force, has a military background, so potentially maybe their lobbying or their focus becomes more on the Pentagon or on national defense sort of issues rather than direct lobbying for Congress.

And so, I don't know what they have planned, but certainly would make some sense based on his committee background and his background in general, what they might be looking at rather than, you know, going up and working the halls of Congress, so to speak, so.

Jason Perry: Let's get to an item that you both mentioned, all three of you mentioned at some point, because we have this looming potential government shutdown coming.

The votes will be important on the Republican side in particular, and it has bled into some conversation back home.

The governor weighed in, in fact, this week.

Dennis, I want to play this clip from the governor about the government shutdown, and you all can do your prognostications about what's about to happen.

Spencer Cox: This is stupid.

I, like, this is the only thing Congress--like, this is the one thing they're supposed to do, right?

Like, pass a budget, guys.

Like, this is--what's it been, ten years, more than that, since they've actually done the budgeting process the way it was envisioned to be.

I'm trying to imagine what our state would be like if we acted like this.

And we, you know, we get 45 days to pass a budget.

The fact that we even have to have this conversation is deeply troubling to me, that we would somehow feel as states it's our responsibility to do the one thing that Congress is supposed to do.

This is--it should be maddening to Americans everywhere.

Jason Perry: Hey, Dennis, sounds like the governor's saying you had one job.

Dennis Romboy: Yeah, and one job to pass a budget, and our state is good at passing a budget.

I mean, it's required under the Constitution to have a--to pass a budget.

And it's served the state well, I think.

Utah could be a model for Congress to follow.

That hasn't happened, obviously, and we're facing, what?

Maybe the--is this, like, the fourth partial or full shutdown of the government in the past, I don't know, a decade or whatever it might be.

I think Utah is well positioned to maybe handle that, as we've seen in the past.

Kate Bradshaw: You know, I completely agree with the governor.

I think he's right on.

I was a junior in high school the last time that we successfully did the budget process the way it was supposed to happen.

And then I'm a little bit older now, and I just find it infuriating, and we have obviously a tremendous example in the state of Utah.

We have a AAA bond rating, we pass a budget every year, it balances, we have healthy reserves, we invest in our infrastructure.

I serve in a city that has the highest bond rating we can have for a city of our size.

Our reserves are funded.

Having a balanced budget allows us the freedom to engage and do other things.

I find it deeply concerning on across the board, nonpartisan criticism on each side, that we cannot do this important work that needs to be done to set our budget to help us have a balance, to live within our means so that we can focus on the key things we need to and not on these things that may impact our national parks here in Utah, you know, access to Medicaid, and a whole host of other services that we need to have happen.

Jason Perry: In our last 60 seconds or so, Chris, I mean, this is important because Kate identifies some pretty big issues.

But politics at play, talk about those a little bit and why this deal has not come through.

Chris Bleak: Well, I think you see a number of things, including, I mentioned earlier, the role of celebrity.

I think what you have is a lot of lawmakers find greater value in being disruptive or becoming celebrities, whether that's appearing on talk shows or whatever it might be, rather than the serious art of legislating, which is and includes passing a budget.

Right now you have an interesting dynamic going on, for example, the--whatever we call the defense budget did not pass for the first time ever.

And you have maybe a serious discussion about Ukraine as part of that, but there are, you know, social issues that are tied up into that budget not passing as well, and they can't even get that budget passed.

So, this should be very concerning for all Americans that they are not willing to pass a budget and figure this out.

But I don't think a lot of these lawmakers are really serious about wanting to pass a budget because it steals from the currency that they value, which is celebrity or popularity or whatever else it might be.

Jason Perry: Are Utahns weigh weighing in at all on this, our elected officials?

Where are they, Dennis, in the last 10 to 15 seconds?

Dennis Romboy: I haven't been coming up.

So, I really don't know where they're at other than what the governor said, you know, the state would try to keep the national parks open and try to keep some of these things going.

Jason Perry: It's interesting that we're already planning for it and our governor comes out and says, "If it happens, we'll be ready in some way."

Thank you so much for your comments this evening, and thank you for watching "The Hinckley Report."

The show is also available as a podcast on PBSUtah.org/HinckleyReport or wherever you get your podcasts.

Thank you for being with us.

We'll see you next week.

♪♪♪