♪♪♪ male announcer: Funding for the Hinckley Report is made possible in part by the Cleone Peterson Eccles Endowment Fund.

Jason Perry: Tonight for the season six finale of the Hinckley Report, our panel reflects on the highs and lows of an unprecedented year in Utah politics.

Ahead of a high stakes primary election, candidates gear up for a summer of fierce campaigning.

And Utahns react to a major leak from the Supreme Court.

♪♪♪ ♪♪♪ Jason Perry: Good evening and welcome to the season six finale of the Hinckley Report.

I'm Jason Perry, Director of the Hinckley Institute of Politics, covering the week, we have Robert Gehrke, columnist with the Salt Lake Tribune; Kate Bradshaw, member of the Bountiful City Council; and Marty Carpenter, president of 24NINE Communications.

So glad to have you all with us this evening, there's a lot to talk about.

Today is our finale, we're gonna talk about what's happening in politics now.

Preview for what's coming for the summer as well.

But Robert, I want to start with you, big leak from the United States Supreme Court this week sent shockwaves both sides of the aisle.

Talk about that for a moment, particularly the implications.

Robert Gehrke: Yeah, I mean, I don't think anybody was surprised that this is the direction the court was going.

I think it was unprecedented though that to have it come out in this fashion.

And so you've got now everybody who was preparing for this ruling in June reacting to it as if it was out now.

I think the ruling was a lot more sweeping, a lot more pointed and a little bit bombastic than people were expecting.

But it appears that they've got the five justices onboard with this right now and the consequence, the big take away I guess is that Roe V. Wade is going to be overturned, and it's gonna be up to the states.

That means in a state like Utah, which already has a trigger law in place, the, there it will basically ban all abortions after, you know, the point of conception, except for the cases of rape, incest, or the life and health of the mother.

So most abortions in Utah will be outlawed and so that is obviously Planned Parenthood, you know, women's rights groups, pro choice groups were outraged.

I was up at the Capitol on Monday, and they had about 1200 people come out to protest this, and but it's, it's a continuation I think of this polarization we're seeing.

Abortion always is a polarizing issue and you know the people on the prolife side people like Ruzicka, you know, Senator Dan McKay, there, this is the day they'd been waiting for.

Jason Perry: Let's talk about that for a minute, Kate, because it's interesting how people are approaching.

One is the implication and there's one about the timing of this leak as well.

Our own Senator Mike Lee came out and said this was entirely intended to threaten and intimidate the United States Supreme Court.

Kate Bradshaw: You know you had people arguing kind of both sides, right?

Is this activist judges?

Is this a way to intimidate the justices?

You know, I did find it really interesting when Mike Lee was describing his own experience clerking for the U S. Supreme Court that they apparently shred, burn, and liquefy circulating opinions in order to make sure there are no are no leaks and so very unprecedented that we would be having this debate.

I don't know if there's anyone left that doesn't have a set opinion on this topic and so it seems like all this is done is whether you're on the left or the right, this has just ignited the debate about how you feel and then how you might use it to fundraise you know on either side of the issue depending on where you subscribe with your political views.

Jason Perry: And Marty talk about the political implications of that 'cause both sides are going to use this through the primaries and all the way through the midterm.

Marty Carpenter: Well first i want to say I thought a liquefied opinion was when you got someone drunk and they told you what they really thought, so maybe that's a little bit different thing in this context, but you know it's interesting to me when you look at how the, how the lead came about and how the story came about.

We have a very sort of schizophrenic media landscape and people can't focus on a story for very long.

So we have the real story, which is Roe V. Wade potentially being overturned, right?

But we so quickly jump to the process story, which is how did the leak happen?

What does the leak mean?

How do these things roll out?

And it sort of divides the audience's attention and some people will sort of take righteous indignation with what happened and how did this leak come about, when the real story is what's happening with the actual law.

Now, how does that all play into something larger?

What do we have coming up?

We've got some mid term elections.

We have Democrats not looking very good.

You could look at this and say-- I know Senator Lee said something about judicial intimidation, but I would say more a chance to rally the base when things aren't looking very good for the Democrats coming up in the mid terms.

Jason Perry: I wanna get to that part for a second, but let's hit that thread right here too because some of the Democrats are not just this election campaign, Robert, but they're saying this is judicial activism.

I know when we vet our justices they always get asked a question.

It's a variation of you're just going to stick with the law or are you going to, you know, it's your own opinion.

Robert Gehrke: Yeah, and all of these justice have been, were clear in their confirmation hearings that they believe in upholding precedent, Gorsuch, Kavanaugh, were both asked about this opinion in particular, the Roe V. Wade, it established precedent in particular and they said they're going to respect precedent, and it's a sort of a cornerstone of conservative jurisprudence that you give deference to those, you know, opinions before.

This one didn't.

This one completely overturns it.

Alito says it was wrong with the day it was decided and I think it sets up an interesting dynamic where you have, he says that because there's not a mention of abortion basically in the constitution, that, that it was a wrong opinion.

Well, there's a lot of things that aren't in the constitution and so it sets up this judicial philosophy that if they draw on that you could lose a whole range of things from gay marriage to interracial marriage to a right to privacy.

And it could potentially be a real snowball effect if this is the philosophy this court adopts going forward.

Jason Perry: Kate, talk about how the sides are going to approach this politically as well.

Some are speculating and maybe this was the intent of the week a little bit too was Democrats are maybe more motivated to show up now.

Kate Bradshaw: I think that is absolutely true, that you will see this be used to rally a base that was maybe struggling to find the right things to motivate their voters to get out, to motivate their donors to contribute and this serves as a rallying cry, particularly for the Democrats.

But because this issue is so deeply and viscerally felt, it will probably also galvanize those on the far right.

So I think we'll just see all of the rhetoric that we usually see in those midterms ramp up, but it does give, you know, the democratic side something to talk about besides the pandemic, besides what's happening with the economy.

And so that probably is helpful to them in that respect.

Robert Gehrke: I just, we should note, though that the opinion was expected out in June anyway, well ahead of the November election.

So while it does have that effect.

I don't think that's the justification for the leak, I mean, I think there's a hole in the in the logic of people who say that Democrats leaked this to motivate their base.

I just think the opinion was going to come out anyway.

I think more than likely the conservatives are tryin' to hold the five justices together and thought that maybe some public pressure might do that.

Marty Carpenter: I agree with that because if you're counting on something happening in May or June that's then going to carry into November, I think you have a misunderstanding of how the American voter block has the ability to lose its focus between now and then.

And so I'm with you.

I don't think that that really plays in.

Jason Perry: Hey, Marty, talk about how important this is in the minds of Utahns.

We've done our own polling in the past, would you say when you're voting for president--to go back to 2020, you say what are the most important issues and after the economy and Covid, it was the Supreme Court nominees.

How big of a deal is that in the minds of Republicans, how they're going to play this decision?

Marty Carpenter: I think that the Supreme Court nominees, it's almost two separate issues, right, I think, for a voter.

One, a Supreme Court nominee you say, yes, I can understand that whoever I vote for for president if they win they're likely going to get to nominate one, two, maybe even three people during the time that they, that they serve.

Abortion specifically as an issue pulls a lot lower.

I think it's one of those like Kate said, everybody sort of has an opinion on it, and I think for a lot of people on the right, maybe with a few legislators who Robert's mentioned specifically who put some laws in place of what would happen if we got to this point, I think most people on the right just sort of assume this would never change.

It's kind of been an issue that pops up but not one that we ever kinda get a chance to win on in that sense.

So I don't know that the abortion issue drives people politically in the same way, but I think that the Supreme Court Justice nominee or nominations actually do.

Robert Gehrke: I do think though that people on the left the Democratic voters are going to turn out because of this, I mean, I think you know I agree with Marty.

I think mostly conservatives were, knew where they were on this, that wasn't the issue that was going to drive them to the polls in November.

That was gonna be, their out of power and they want to get back in power, but Democrats didn't have that sort of motivating factor, and now they've got something to, you know, to focus on to, you know.

Kate Bradshaw: It's interesting because, you know, in past elections, when we've seen the Republican side, the right, rally, right, they've needed kind of an existential crisis to kind of bring together, used as a fundraising tool, used to be that, that thing that drives your discussion of your side's ideas forward.

This does seem at least to me that it gives some, you know, a different set of cohesion to the Democrats and the left that they can use and a boost, you know, while other kind of polling numbers have been trending in a way that looks like the midterms, you know, flip control.

Robert Gehrke: If I could before we move on.

I think it's important to keep this in focus too.

For the first time in our nation's history, we had a constitutional right that had been recognized by the court for 50 years and now that's been taken away.

And who's going to be impacted?

Women in blue states are going to be fine, wealthy women in red states will be able to travel out of state.

It's going to be the lower income disadvantaged people in red states who are gonna be most and directly impacted by this.

And I think it's gonna, you know, they're typically voiceless and so it's going to be, it's historic in that sense, and I think it's going to ignite this debate for another 20, 30 years.

Jason Perry: Kate, just, so a comment to what Marty said a moment ago too about whether or not Republicans thought this was coming.

Our own legislature as Robert mentioned, a moment ago, was anticipating that day, and we're one of 13 states that does have a trigger law in effect.

Talk about that for just a moment before we leave it because Utah will be impacted very quickly to Robert's point.

Kate Bradshaw: Yeah so the legislature passed in 2020 a bill that goes with those strict limitations, you know, rape, incest, health of the mother.

So when the Supreme Court issues an official decision, you know, that will, that will trigger.

The question, I think, becomes, because this was, you know, before the pandemic hit this was a really big topic in 2020 before our focus shifted in the legislative session.

And that has always been seen as the line.

You know, Utah, then met kind of without established most restrictive line would be with this trigger bill.

Depending on whether the leaked decision is actually this decision, will the Utah legislature want to come back and go further?

Will they look at something like what Texas has done?

Will they take it to whatever the full extent is of the Supreme Court decision once we officially have it?

I definitely think a bill will be introduced, given the makeup of the legislature.

The question will be whether there's enough people that want to take on what will be a very visceral issue, an issue that would consume a lot of the energy and time of our very short legislative session.

To take it, you know, just ratchet it down that much further from where the 2020 trigger law exists.

Marty Carpenter: My campaign muscle memory kicks in also though, and I know that like nothing's done until it's done.

So a leaked draft is not a final decision as you just alluded to and, you know, if I were on wherever you sit on this but if you're particularly on the side that's celebrating Roe V. Wade being overturned, I would also be very cautious at the moment and say this also has the sense that it could at least, there is a possibility this is Lucy and Charlie with the football, right?

That, don't celebrate, don't spike the football until you get into the end zone.

Robert Gehrke: If I could, to Kate's point, I mean, I think she's, I think she's right.

There is gonna be an effort to tighten it down.

I think we, anything that goes further than we've gone so far would go beyond what the LDS Church position is.

And the LDS church obviously is a big player both of the legislature and in the state.

So it will be interesting to watch to see if they try to do that.

There are some problems that probably need to be clarified in our current law.

For example, the rape incest exception.

It has to be verified with law enforcement for, the fetal deformity has to be uniformly lethal which is a very squishy, you know, we don't know if something is 100% lethal or 99% lethal and does it, you know, it puts doctors in a tough position.

So there probably will be some efforts to refine that as we get closer to this opinion coming out if, as Marty notes, it comes out.

Jason Perry: Let's switch gears for just a moment, but still something coming from Washington D.C. Kate, it's been an interesting conversation this week about student loans.

We're having graduations, you know, the University of Utah just this week at our commencement just yesterday, our students are getting out there and there's a lot of talk about whether or not the federal government, President Biden, is going to forgive some student loans, talking about up to 10000, some are pushing for up to 50000.

Kate Bradshaw: You know, it was such an interesting question because I don't think anyone hears that, and then doesn't think about their own personal situation about whether you had student loans or or didn't have student loans and how long they took for you to pay off and, you know, whether how big of a burden that was in your life.

My husband is a teacher.

He attended the University of Utah.

He had student loans.

It took us a while to pay those, pay those off, and so you have this visceral reaction.

Should, you know, new young students get to have this debt forgiveness or not?

This is an issue I think that there's, it's again going to be very polarizing.

To do this is a significant fiscal hit.

We've already spent a lot of money in Covid.

Where will this money come from?

On this, on the other hand, you have generations who are saying this pathway to, you know, jobs is, it's just not sustainable.

There's so many things that seem stacked against current generations in terms of housing prices that are astronomical at this point and achieving that degree is also one of those key things, and we need more people to enter certain parts of our workforce.

How can we incentivize them to do that?

So I think we are going to have a great national debate about this.

I think it will be something that is used for this midterm election cycle.

I'd be curious, we have this debate often, are we really going to get to it in this cycle?

Jason Perry: Yeah, I wonder that too.

But Marty, it's been so interesting to see our reaction from our two members of the Senate, from Senator Romney and Senator Lee, both of them had a very quick reaction to this.

I believe it was this, Senator Lee called it bribery, patronage and bribery, that's where the two things were from our two Senators, which was interesting.

And they said this was just ahead.

This is a campaign gimmick of sorts, that was what they said.

What do you think about it?

Marty Carpenter: Well I think that's a very valid argument and with most things it's never just so cut and dry, black and white, two things can be true at the same time, right.

It can be true that it would be massively unfair for people who took out student loans, worked really hard to pay them back, and then have other people get theirs forgiven, right?

That I think on its its surface, yes, that's unfair.

But also you can say, we let people who are 18 years old takeout massive loans in what could be considered by many a sort of a predatory loan environment, we wouldn't let 'em go to a loan shark, but we'll let the government loan them massive sums of money to go to get an education with no real direction on or advice on will you be able to pay this back based on the career you're pursuing.

It sort of here's a chunk of money, go to school.

You may be going to school to get a job that pays $40000 a year.

You may be going to school to get a job that will pay you a million dollars a year.

One of those students will end up in a better position to pay it back.

Two things can be true at the same time.

Jason Perry: Robert, to that point, so that about the average amount of student debt in the state of Utah is around $31000.

In your conversations with people in the community, how is this received?

Robert Gehrke: I mean, I think as Marty pointed out, people who've, and Kate, as people who've paid off their loans, they're not happy about it.

But I think we've got, you know, since we were all in college, the landscape has changed a lot.

Expenses are through the roof, students are coming out with this massive amounts of debt.

They can't afford housing prices because they are through the roof, and so there is, there is a sense that, okay, let's give some relief.

I think, what I hope comes out of this is a discussion about structurally reforming the way we do higher education.

Why are we giving these massive amounts of loans for private, for profit universities that mostly rely on these for their entire revenue stream?

Why are we doing this?

Why are we giving these huge amounts of loans, as Marty noted, to people who are going to be making $30000 a year when they came out.

You know, we've got to start talking about this and I think we've got to double down on our investment and public education system.

There's Community College, free Community College like they do in Salt Lake Community College, low cost college like they do here at the University of Utah.

Marty Carpenter: And you're seeing some natural market correction to that, right, just from businesses saying, hey, I don't really care if you passed, you know, a history test or a math test, I know, I wanna know if you can code and if you can code quickly and accurately, and I'll give you a lot of money to do that.

So there is some correction there, and I think those things will factor in.

But yeah part of it is looking at a system that says are we still educating people for the jobs that we actually need to have filled?

Kate Bradshaw: We also have jobs that where we have, we have shortages.

You know, we need teachers, but coming out of college with a lot of student debt to become a teacher is one of those that is an interesting balance.

You know, we're constantly looking for police officers and things like that.

So if we're going to, you know, want to train people in certain areas of our workforce where we desperately are in need of people, do we wanna figure out how do we level that playing field?

I think that's to your point, Robert.

So I hope we are having a great national debate about this topic.

I'm just not convinced in an election cycle year that we're really going to have a solution by the end.

Marty Carpenter: Interestingly, it kind of in some ways mirrors the immigration debate, right?

It's a matter of what does our economy need?

What's the right thing to do?

How many people can we let in?

And then you get into the, then we bring in family members and so on.

At the end of the day I think we can say whether you have what you would call a broken system or a system that could use some alteration, we just need to have an ongoing discussion to figure out how to optimize all of those systems so that we are in the best position possible as a country.

Jason Perry: Let's get local.

This summer, in a very short while we're going to have some primaries.

And we have a bunch of incumbents that are up with with some challengers.

But Kate, let's just get your read.

Any incumbents in danger in the state of Utah right now?

Kate Bradshaw: Well signature gathering in SB54 has changed how we do primaries in the state of Utah.

We have primaries.

And we have primaries across the board.

We have 'em in every congressional district, in our US Senate district throughout our legislative races.

We've got interesting primaries.

In terms of those that I think are most interesting, I don't know that any of our incumbents are in serious danger.

If I were watching a couple, I'd be watching the first district because you have a, you know, a new freshmen congressmen in Blake Moore who's running for his first reelection, his district was shifted a little bit in redistricting so he picks up some different areas.

Jason Perry: Yeah, three people in that.

Kate Bradshaw: Yes, and so that one I think is one to watch about not saying that I'm deeply worried about congressman Moore, but that one I think is worth interesting.

The three way primary for US Senate is again a very interesting race in incumbent Mike Lee, in Becky Edwards and an Ally Isom.

And so those are where I'll be spending most of my time taking a look.

Robert Gehrke: And I think the, I think the interesting thing to watch in that Senate race isn't necessarily, I don't think Mike Lee's in trouble, but how hard do they make him work?

How much do they deplete his reserve of funds going into the general election against independent Evan McMullin, who Democrats took this unprecedented step of not nominating anybody.

So, you know, do they weaken him a little bit?

Do they soften him up?

Does he have to spend money?

And how does that affect the race as it goes into the general?

Marty Carpenter: So far the answer to that question is no 'cause Lee's the only one who's up on TV at this point as far as I know.

So, you know, he's, the clock is ticking.

Everyone makes this mistake when they start out, they start thinking, oh, the primary is coming up June 28th.

No, the primary is coming up June 8, that's when the first ballots are actually gonna hit people's hands, that's when the die hards, some people who've already decided, will vote.

So I don't think anybody is in any real trouble, including Mike Lee going back, though, to the convention.

I was actually a little surprised that he only got like 71% at convention.

I was shocked to think that one out of four people at the state convention were not likely die hards.

Somehow, that they came in with somebody else in mind, that was a little surprising to me.

And just leads to when you get to a bigger group at a primary, there's always the chance that people sort of will poll that they like Mike Lee, but might vote somewhere else.

Robert Gehrke: I'd be remiss if I didn't bring up my hatred of the convention system, and you're going to see it this time too.

We're gonna see Blake Moore finish behind Andrew Badger.

He's gonna beat him in the primary, you're gonna see it where, you know, where the person who finished ahead at convention doesn't necessarily win the primary.

And it's the same pattern we're seeing all the time, the delegates are out of touch with the Republican voters, and you see it with Steve Handy.

I know we wanted to talk about him.

Steve Handy the Layton state representative who lost at convention is now talking about running a write in campaign against his opponent after his opponent made some, used a transphobic slur in a podcast.

You know, and there's just this sentiment that the delegates are not making the same choice that the primary voters would end up making.

Jason Perry: So you look at the hand--the Steve Handy race, Marty, and it's interesting because we always have these conversations even going into this.

Should I get signatures, should I not?

He didn't.

Marty Carpenter: The answer to should I get signatures is always get signatures, absolutely.

Jason Perry: Yes, it is now, but put that in the context, what Robert was talking about, because the Senate race with Senator Mike Lee and Becky, Isom--in Becky Edwards and Ally Isom.

It's the first time since SB54 allowing a signature gathering process, where we had three candidates in the primary there, is that the new normal for the state of Utah?

Marty Carpenter: Well, it's the first time for the Senate we had essentially the same set up or maybe a little bit more complex with the Governor's race in 2020, right.

We had Greg Hughes, Jon Huntsman, We had Spencer Cox and Thomas Wright, but also when, sorry I was blanking out who the fourth one was in that race.

So it can get a little bit complex and you can ultimately win with that plurality, which I think does make some people understandably uncomfortable that that's how that works out.

But is it the new normal?

Man, I hope so.

I think with more competition and more people in and more voters involved where it's a primary situation and everyone gets a ballot that they can cast their vote, I think that's better.

Robert Gehrke: And there's talk about potentially tryin' to lower those signature thresholds, cut them in half so more people can get in.

Maybe use rank choice voting so we don't have this plurality issue.

It's always, the system's always right in progress, I guess.

Marty Carpenter: Lower the signature threshold, allow for electronic signatures.

If you did nothing else, that would make a massive difference in the overall system.

We just make it too hard for-- oh and the other thing I would say is be able to sign more than one petition.

A petition is not a vote.

It's just a matter of vetting and saying this person's not crazy and I want to hear more from them at some point.

Jason Perry: Before we go, I want to get a little preview for the summer.

Kate, big issues that we're going to see on the table, let's talk from the legislative perspective first.

Kate Bradshaw: Drought is gonna continue to be an issue.

We are going to be heading into our July holiday season soon which means fireworks.

So I think that discussion about drought, about wildfires is going to continue to be with us throughout the summer.

We may need to even see a special session in order to continue some of those emergency declarations going forward.

And of course, the economy.

I think that will continue to dominate a lot of our summer discussions, especially as we are excited to get out now that things feel safer and more open.

And I am certain that we will all be feeling it at the pump if we are thinking about doing a family road trip.

Jason Perry: Yeah, absolutely right.

Robert.

Robert Gehrke: Yeah, I think the governor has talked about some potential options to try to alleviate some of the pressure on gas prices.

There's not a whole lot he can do, but I think Kate's right, there's probably going to be a special session.

And yeah, drought is gonna continue to be a driving, in the forefront of everybody's mind as we head into the summer and we start to see fires start.

I also, I'm just watching these, you know, these political campaigns going into the summer.

I think this senate race that I mentioned with Evan McMullin and Mike Lee, I still think Lee probably wins that.

But we've got a, for the first time that I can remember, an independent candidate, making as sort of an outsider run.

It's gonna be a fascinating thing to watch because if it works, or if it even comes close to working, it can totally change the paradigm of this Republican Democrat, right left polarized landscape, if you can run it right up the middle and get support.

Marty Carpenter: I think we'll see early on in some of the polling that will come out over the next several weeks is just how poisonous is it to be aligned with the Democrats on anything.

McMullin may have been a viable option for people, but then he had about a one week, two week new cycle where it was Democrats deciding to support him, followed by him coming out and saying I'm not gonna caucus with Republicans.

Those are hard messages to reverse.

Even if you have five months to do it, that's hard if that's all people know about you is I remember that guy ran against Trump.

He is loved by the Democrats, evidently.

And he's goin'--not gonna caucus with Republicans.

I think that gives a lot of, I think it was a really bad stretch there for Evan McMullin's candidacy.

Robert Gehrke: He was pretty fortunate, though, that he's not going into the convention this week after that Supreme Court opinion leak because I don't think there's any way the Democrats would have jumped on board with him.

Jason Perry: That's gonna have to be the last comment there, great insight this evening.

Thank you.

And thank you for watching The Hinckley Report.

This show is also available as a podcast on PBSUtah.org/hinckleyreport or wherever you get your podcasts.

Thank you for being with us, and we'll see you next season.

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