announcer: Funding for "The Hinckley Report" is made possible in part by the Cleone Peterson Eccles Endowment Fund.

Jason Perry: Tonight, on "The Hinckley Report."

As Utah's filing deadline closes, candidates gear up for tough races.

On the national stage, presidential candidates prepare for the first round of primaries.

And our panel examines emerging themes as state legislators prepare for another record-breaking legislative session.

♪♪♪ ♪♪♪ Jason Perry: Good evening, and welcome to "The Hinckley Report."

I'm Jason Perry, Director of the Hinckley Institute of Politics.

Covering the week we have Lindsay Aerts, reporter with KSL-TV; Democratic Representative Angela Romero, Minority Leader in the Utah House of Representatives; and Republican Senator Mike McKell, representing Utah County and the Utah State Senate.

Thank you for being with us this evening.

A lot happening.

We're about to get to the legislative session.

Candidates are filing.

So much is in the works right now in the state of Utah.

I want to go through some of the races, because we finally know who we will have a chance to vote for in this next election cycle.

The deadline ended this past Monday, and now we have a full slate of candidates.

So, I wanna talk about a couple of these races, because the dynamics are already getting kind of hot.

Lindsay, let's start with you for just a moment on our Senate race.

Of course, Senator Mitt Romney, not going to be running for the seat.

Interesting names, and they're names we kind of know well.

Lindsay Aerts: Yeah, well, Representative John Curtis finally making it official that he was jumping into the race for Senate, which is significant because it sets off this cascade of shifting in Utah politics, right?

He currently holds the seat in CD-3, so that opens up along with this open Senate seat.

And I think when you look at this field of candidates, there are two candidates that stand out to me just as a casual and local political observer in John Curtis and Brad Wilson, former House speaker.

Those two, Brad's been in the race--excuse me, Mr. Wilson has been in the race for a really long time.

But as I had a chance to talk to Representative John Curtis as he decided to jump in the Senate race, you know, he told me it was really an effort to take his platform to a larger stage.

And, you know, he's been wishy washy about this for a while, and he first said he would run, then he said he wouldn't, then he teased it again, and now he's finally getting in.

And we kinda talked about that, is that whiplash to voters?

And he just said, "Look, there was a lot of pressure and a lot of just--" there was a lot of-- he had to make the decision quickly, right?

And so, he finally said he kind of settled on it, and he took his time to finally jump into that race.

But I think for voters, it was a little bit of whiplash.

Jason Perry: Yeah, it's interesting.

Senator McKell, there are 11 Republicans, 11 Republicans, the ones we just talked about, sort of the late entries was, like, Brent Orrin Hatch, for example, oldest son of the late Senator Orrin Hatch, Mayor Trent Staggs.

There's some names that are well known in political circles, but talk about the dynamics when you have 11 of them, because that is a pretty hefty number.

Mike McKell: Well, and let me just jump in with that.

I think the field's gonna be narrowed quickly.

That is a large number, but if you look at the candidates on top, the type of funding they're able to bring, the type of race they're able to bring, the race is gonna come down to John Curtis and Brad Wilson.

They both served in the state, they both have some name recognition.

I recognize there's 11 candidates, they're gonna go out, they're gonna campaign hard, but at the end of the day, getting that message out, it's harder now than it's ever been to get that message out.

It takes funding.

I think you've got a former Speaker Wilson who's well-funded.

I think Congressman Curtis is well-funded.

I think they've got a lot of name ID.

And for me, we can look at all 11 candidates, but I think it's going to come down to those two ultimately.

Lindsay Aerts: I'm sorry, I'm just interested to see who backs them too, because with Brad Wilson jumping out so early, he got a lot of local political support, a lot of state lawmakers, even the governor was backing him a touch.

I'm interested to see if his mind changes now that John Curtis is officially in the race.

Jason Perry: Of course, our Democratic challenger, Representative Brian King, let's talk about him, because he's been in the House for a very long time.

One of your colleagues, Representative Romero, talk about that race, because we have the Democrats putting up--I'm talking about the governor's race, aren't I, right here?

We have Democrats, we have three Democrats: Laird Hamblin, Caroline Gleich, and Archie Williams III.

These are the three I wanna talk about, because in the last election cycle the Democrats did not put up a candidate for that race.

Angela Romero: We're talking about the Senate now, right?

Jason Perry: Yes, back to the Senate.

Angela Romero: It'll be interesting.

I know there are three candidates, and sometimes as a party you don't choose the candidates, they choose you, as the Republicans are seeing with 11 candidates.

And so, it'll be really interesting to see.

I want to go back to the Brad Wilson and John Curtis, though.

I think it was really interesting that we were hearing rumors that the congressman was going to jump in, and then there was a poll put out to the community, and he was beating Wilson at a high number.

I mean, there was--so it's really interesting when you have a speaker, a former speaker, and you had this with Speaker Greg Hughes jumping at it--to a congressional or a Senate level, and you're seeing they're not as popular maybe with the people as they thought they might be.

Lindsay Aerts: Yeah, they have a lot of name ID when it comes to inside political circles, right, and they make a lot of decisions in the lawmaker--or in the-- with legislation, but the name ID doesn't always translate to the general public, kind of like Representative Romero's saying.

Jason Perry: Since I was so anxious to get to the governor's race, can we talk about that one?

Because some other big names, particularly some of the colleagues formerly in the legislature, running against Governor Spencer Cox.

Phil Lyman is filed, and Carson Jorgensen.

Senator McKell, talk about those candidates right there, because this really changes--maybe not the winner, necessarily, but maybe, and certainly how we're going to divide up the interest.

Mike McKell: Yeah, so that changes the race.

Obviously, the caucus convention system is going to be important for those candidates.

It's interesting, Representative Lyman has been a guy who's opposed signatures from day one, and he's now gathering signatures.

I thought that was interesting.

I kind of follow him on Twitter, and there's a lot of inconsistencies with Representative Lyman that I think voters should pay attention to.

But ultimately, the race to me, I think, if I'm handicapping it today, that's a race for Governor Cox to lose.

He's got really, really broad, broad support.

His favorability is high.

I think it's an interesting race as it rolls out, but I don't think it'll be competitive like we'll see in the US Senate race.

Lindsay Aerts: And Phil Lyman has been in that race for a while, and then you saw Carson Jorgensen jump in, and in my mind, they occupy the same lane.

So, I'm interested to see who can out-conservative each other.

Jason Perry: Well, talk about that a second, as it talks about the conventions represented, because we've talked about signatures a little bit.

Sometimes you get a flavor for where people are based on whether or not they decide to get signatures.

The senator's talked about Phil Lyman getting signatures, Carson Jorgensen decided not to.

Angela Romero: Again, it just talks to you about whether we should have a caucus system or whether we shouldn't have a caucus system.

And we've seen the way in which we vote differently, where it's ranked choice voting at a local or a city level, and we're looking at things at a national level.

The thing that interests me most about this race is Brian King, current representative Brian King and representative Phil Lyman and just seeing how this plays out this legislative session Jason Perry: What kind of influence is the governor having right now with you from your seats in the legislature?

Mike McKell: You know, I think the governor has been really good to work with the legislature, but I want to go back to something that Representative Romero has brought up, because I think it is interesting to see how their role as legislators with Representative King, Representative Lyman plays out.

It's interesting to look at bill files that have been opened and some of the bill files that both of them have opened.

And one of the concerns I always have when legislators run, it seems like the legislature can be used as a platform to run legislation to help a campaign, and I think it's something we ought to keep an eye on.

I think both of those two candidates have opened a number of bills that feel more political than normal, and I think it's worth paying attention.

Angela Romero: But I think we politicized it a lot more by moving us registering to run for office to January.

I think that was a fatal flaw from my perspective.

Because I think it's just made the legislature more political because the good speaker, who's a friend of mine, always talks about the Utah way and how we don't want to be like Washington D.C., but I feel like we're heading in that direction.

Every year the legislature gets more far right, and with us pushing that to January, you're just seeing people pull out these little rabbits from a hat, and it's frightening, actually.

Jason Perry: So, Lindsay, talk about this, because it is an interesting dynamic at play.

So, now that they have to file before the legislative session starts, and what are you hearing from people and those that you're interviewing about it might give an opportunity for someone to grandstand through legislation?

Maybe not legislation would pass, but maybe gives them a platform they might not have been able to take.

Lindsay Aerts: Keep in mind, they can't raise money while they're sitting, like, during the legislative session, so you can't kind of check it there.

But like Senator McKell is saying, through the legislation they run and kind of the talking points they use, that is where we see kind of this messaging show up.

And that was the point I was going to make too that representative Romero made is just moving up that deadline, now we know every single candidate who's up for reelection, sometimes you're sitting next to them in the chamber, right?

So, your foe is sitting right there, and it shouldn't, but it could change your vote, right?

And just the moves you make now speak to the elected official you will be as opposed to the one that you currently are.

Jason Perry: So interesting to see that dynamic at play.

Let's talk about a couple of these other races.

Let's do the first congressional district for a moment.

Congressman Blake Moore has two inter-party challenges.

Senator, two inter-party challenges: a Democrat, Bill Campbell; Libertarian, Daniel Cottam.

Anything newsworthy in this race?

Mike McKell: Look, I don't think so.

I think that's Blake's race to lose.

I think he's done a really good job.

I think he--I watch his town halls he does online, I think he does a terrific job, represents the state well.

I think for Representative--for Congressman Moore, it's don't make mistakes.

I don't think he will.

I think he's done a great job.

He works great with the legislature.

So, that one doesn't concern me.

I think that's his race to lose.

Lindsay Aerts: An incumbency is hard to beat in general, but I will point out that the Democrats are running someone in every single federal race, so clearly that party sees, you know, that these seats are worth challenging, at least in some regard.

Jason Perry: Talk about the strategy, because it seems it is true.

We have candidates, not a third party, this time Democrats all up and down the-- Angela Romero: We'll see how it plays out, but we have to go back to previous sessions where we did redistricting, and the way our congressional boundaries are, it's nearly impossible for a Democrat to win.

And so, it'll be really interesting to see what happens with courts and just what happens when that decision's brought down.

But I just really--it's really hard to recruit people to run for a congressional race, because they feel like it's already been decided who's gonna win.

Jason Perry: Can we talk about the second district for a moment, Representative?

So, Celeste Maloy, been in for a very short amount of time, has two inter-party challengers: Colby Jenkins and Ty Jensen.

We may recall Maloy won her election with 39% of the vote.

This is the primary, and then she beat Becky, that was Becky Edwards and Bruce Hough, but she won the general with 57%.

She decided not to get signatures.

Angela Romero: It'll be interesting to see what happens.

I can't predict his party, and their convention is a little bit more wild than ours is, and so it'll be interesting what kind of dynamics are at play, because it's politics.

Mike McKell: But the one thing I'd say with Celeste Malloy is she really worked hard with elected officials in all of the communities throughout that district, and I think she does have some stronger challengers.

I think that race is certainly going to be closer than other races that we've talked about, but Celeste does have strong support from legislators, mayors, county commissioners, and ultimately, I think as you look at that convention race she slugged out before, part of the reason she won is because she went and got broad support from all the elected officials in all these small counties.

I think Celeste comes out on top.

I think that race is a little closer, but ultimately Celeste is gonna win that race.

Lindsay Aerts: She also won that rural vote at the convention as well, and when her and--forgive me, his name is slipping my mind--Jordan solidified at convention last year that really put her over the top.

So, it'll be interesting to see if rural Utah shows up again and who they coalesce behind.

Jason Perry: I just wanna get to two more races before we stop.

The third district now open.

So Senator, talk about this, because, wow, you got some former friends on this.

We're all still friends.

But let's talk about a couple of these things, 11 Republicans in this particular race for this open seat, some of who we've seen before, Senator Mike Kennedy; Stewart Peay, the former Utah GOP chair; Rod Bird, the mayor of Roosevelt; Chris Herrod is running for this race again, and interestingly, our auditor, John "Frugal" Dougall.

Mike McKell: Yes, yes.

It's gonna be an interesting race.

I will say sometimes as a legislator, I think we overvalue our name ID.

I think you've got a lot of candidates in that race with probably less name ID than they realize.

It feels like Senator Kennedy probably has the most name ID.

I think that race, probably, in my view, is going to come down to Mike Kennedy, John Dougall.

I do think Stuart Peay is a great candidate.

It's interesting to see Chris Herrod again.

I think it's interesting to see folks that run repeatedly, and I think you see that in a lot of races, a lot of familiar faces, and that's one that's a familiar face, hasn't performed well in the past, and I think that trend will likely continue.

Lindsay Aerts: And Mike Kennedy's name ID largely comes from the legislation he ran, what was it, last year or two years ago, on the transgender surgery bills that he was the sponsor of, and you saw him get a lot of recognition for good or for bad because of that legislation.

And so, do voters remember him for that?

Is that the thing that will decide whether or not they vote for him?

Like you say, John Dougall holds a statewide office but is not running for reelection in that office, so will his name ID help him there?

Jason Perry: We'll watch that one too.

Glenn Wright is the Democrat running there.

And just one more thing, Burgess Owens in the 4th District unopposed in terms of his own party, but there are two Democrats running for that.

Angela Romero: And again, that will be interesting to see.

It's unfortunate that he's basically going to win because, again, let's go back to redistricting and how those congressional lines were divided, and it cut Salt Lake City in four.

And so, it's really difficult for us to have someone run, knowing that it's an uphill battle.

Lindsay Aerts: And historically, that district has been held by Democrats, right, in the past.

But like Representative Romero's saying, with redistricting, it's hard to see how that happens again.

Jason Perry: In terms of legislation to the attorney general's race, Senator McKell, you've talked about this quite a bit in the press.

Are we going to see anything this session that might discuss about how we get an attorney general in the state of Utah?

Mike McKell: Yeah, and to be really clear, I think we should appoint the Attorney General.

I think there's a lot of reasons for that.

I think the Attorney General represents the client, the client's the state of Utah.

Just yesterday or this morning, I know Robert Gehrke at the Tribune ran another story, looked at some of the disclosures of current Attorney General Sean Reyes.

Just things that are troubling, stuff that shouldn't happen.

We have an audit right now.

I don't wanna get in front of the audit.

Audits oftentimes will include recommendations.

I wanna see those recommendations before I move forward with legislation.

It's something that I'm considering.

I wanna have a bill file, but it'll take a lot of work.

This has been discussed in the past.

There was a Constitutional Review Commission.

They went statewide.

It'll take a lot of work to get voters on board.

But before we get ahead of ourselves, I wanna see that audit and the recommendations from legislative auditors.

Lindsay Aerts: So as a journalist, I'm jumping in, are you running that this session?

Mike McKell: I'm not gonna run it before I get the audit results.

Angela Romero: But I also want to jump in here too and talk about when Jan Graham was the attorney general, we didn't have the issues that we've had with the past three attorney generals from the Republican Party.

Lindsay Aerts: It's interesting to see that office and the history of it, right?

Where you have three scandals in a row, for lack of a better word, and kind of how that shapes who gets elected to that office next.

You know, I've done a little bit of coverage in terms of what is it about that office that, you know, lends itself to corruption or alleged corruption?

And some of the political experts I talked to, they kind of boiled it down to people seeking office who want notoriety and the power that being the state's attorney yields and just kind of the combination of those two things.

Mike McKell: Well, and one word I would use, Lindsay, you said there's not really a word for it.

One word I would use is indefensible.

Some of the things that have happened, it's indefensible.

They shouldn't have happened the way they did, and that's why for me, I like the idea of appointing the attorney general.

I know there are a lot of folks that have concern with that.

It's not perfect, but for me, it's a much better solution than what we've seen in recent history.

Jason Perry: One more race that touches the legislature, because it's so interesting, these dynamics.

This is the state Senate 24.

This is Senator Curt Bramble running again, but three Republican challengers, and they've all served in the legislature in the past.

Brad Daw, Dan Hemmert, and Keven Stratton.

Do you want to talk about that one first, Senator?

Mike McKell: Gosh, I don't know if I do want to talk about that.

I've served with all of those legislators, they're fine people, I wish them the best, how's that?

Jason Perry: That's very nice.

It's an interesting dynamic, right, Representative?

Angela Romero: It's a very interesting dynamic, because if anyone watches the Senate and they know the Senate and the state legislature, Curt Bramble is a force, and so usually he intimidates people.

And so, I was really--my eyes opened really wide when I saw those names running against him.

And it was like, will this be the downfall of Curt Bramble, or will he persevere?

Lindsay Aerts: So, just from the outside looking in, I don't have--I haven't done any reporting on this race yet, but I just wanna know what is the effort to challenge that seat?

What is it about Senator Bramble?

Is it the industry piece?

Is it some of the votes he's taken?

Why is that seat and him so vulnerable?

Angela Romero: Or is it because he's been there a gazillion years?

Mike McKell: Let me just--I will say this.

Let me just throw in a constitutional reference.

All political power is inherent in the people.

Angela represents a good group of people in a district that she represents, I represent good people.

These seats don't belong to us.

I always cringe when I hear a legislator or a member of Congress use the word "my seat."

These seats don't belong to us.

It's okay that we have challengers.

It's okay that Senator Bramble has challengers.

These are interesting candidates, they're interesting men in the race that we've had a chance to serve with.

But ultimately, that seat belongs to the people of Senate District 24, and they get to make that decision.

And I think that's the important dynamic.

And let's let them decide.

It's gonna be--it'll be fun to watch.

It's far more interesting than a lot of the races we're gonna have in the state.

But let's not forget who these seats belong to, and they belong to the people.

And it's probably healthy to have races like that.

Jason Perry: I wanna talk for just a moment about this announcement yesterday from our First Lady, Abby Cox, and Lieutenant Governor Deidre Henderson.

I know you all are watching this, but it's interesting.

They came out, there's a press event where they officially endorsed Nikki Haley for President of the United States.

Lindsay Aerts: This is so interesting, and I'm sure Senator McKell is gonna speak to this because he was there and he's leading the charge.

First of all, I'll point out that so many lawmakers in Utah were behind Governor Ron DeSantis months and months ago.

Angela Romero: And they were standing behind him when he talked about-- Lindsay Aerts: Literally standing behind him, right.

And so, now there's this kind of group coming out, pushing for Nikki Haley.

So, I'll point that out.

The other thing, it's really interesting to me to see Abby Cox come out and get involved in politics, mostly because just speaking generally, you don't typically see First Ladies, First Gentleman weigh into the political sphere.

They often let their spouse handle that.

And so, I'm interested in what the decision making there was, and maybe Senator McKell can speak to it, and why she felt the need to come out and support Nikki Haley.

Mike McKell: Well, I mean, the decision is clear.

And I'm not going to give a stump speech, but Americans have a choice to make.

And the choice, do we want drama in D.C., or do we want to move past that drama?

And I'm excited to be part of the leadership team for Nikki Haley.

I am really grateful that the First Lady, Deidre Henderson, and others joined this team, because America needs a generational leader.

I'm excited about Nikki Haley.

I didn't join this team because I want to fight against other candidates, we've got a candidate that we want to see elected.

Things are going to get interesting on Monday in Iowa.

Looking at the temperatures there, I wouldn't want to go to their caucus.

It's supposed to be 40 below with the wind chill, and then New Hampshire and South Carolina.

But America needs a strong leader right now, and I think it's exciting.

Angela Romero: Well, and I'll say America does have a strong leader, because you look at Ron DeSantis and you look at Nikki Haley and you look at slavery, and both of them can't answer questions about slavery and the history of our country.

We can't forget what happened here, because if we dismiss the past and we change the past, then we don't--we're gonna continue to make those same mistakes.

And I wanna point out to people, people always make fun of our current president here in Utah.

My colleagues always talk about him.

But this is a man who has knowledge.

This--he served in the Senate, he was a vice president, and now he's the president.

And so, I don't want people to undermine the skillset he brings to the presidency.

Jason Perry: Also point out what the national polling is showing just in terms of the--Nikki Haley and Ron DeSantis.

When Nikki Haley goes head to head with President Biden, she has a chance.

Ron DeSantis, maybe not so much.

When it's President Trump and President Biden, maybe not so much.

And perhaps Utah's leaders are realizing that if we're gonna have a candidate that has a chance against President Biden, then it needs to be Nikki Haley.

Mike McKell: Well, in a Wall Street Journal poll, it just recently showed head to head, Nikki Haley beats Biden by 17%.

That's a substantial margin.

I love my colleague, Representative Romero, but this is where we'll just have to disagree.

Angela Romero: The polls change overnight.

Mike McKell: They do change overnight.

Angela Romero: So, we can have a poll saying someone's leading by 20%, and polls don't always get it right.

And I think the American people are tired of all this rhetoric, and I predict Biden will win.

Jason Perry: One more issue that we have to get to because it's high on the legislative priority list.

Bills have started to come out, and a pretty controversial bill just landed this week.

Let's talk about for a moment the Diversity, Equity, and Inclusion.

Representative, start with you, I know the bill's out, it's being circulated, people are still trying to figure out what exactly it does.

Primary aims are eliminating diversity statements, hiring, firing, recruitment, et cetera, for institutions of higher education and public education, and also eliminating DEI offices.

Angela Romero: And also we're looking at state and county and local agencies.

I haven't had a chance to go thoroughly over the bill because my Republican colleagues have, but we haven't.

I got a glimpse of it the other day, but then it was actually put out.

But what I want to tell people is DEI is not this monster or this boogeyman that people are putting out there.

I'm a product of DEI, and so is Senator Escamilla.

So, I take great offense when my colleagues talk about DEI and the governor in particular talking about it, borderline evil, and the speaker saying it's divisive.

And so, I put it out there to both of them, how is my existence divisive?

How is the air I breathe divisive?

How is it my opinions divisive?

Because what I'm seeing when we talk about the Utah way, we talk about we all get along, yeah, we're a super majority, and there's a small minority.

But anytime people disagree with certain individuals, we're being divisive.

And so, what I'm seeing here and the rhetoric I'm seeing at the legislative level, and I think this comes from the national level, is we're trying to erase people.

You know, first we start with transgender youth, then we start with our LGBT community, and now it's communities of color.

And for me, it's frustrating because I personalize it.

And people say, well, why personalize it?

I go, because you're not me.

You didn't grow up like I did here in this state and face the barriers I did.

And because of DEI programs, I'm here now, the minority leader of the House Democrats.

Jason Perry: In our last 30 seconds, where do you see this bill going in this first week of the session?

Mike McKell: I think it's too early to know.

And I hope we turn the temperature down on Capitol Hill.

I hope we show some compassion with the issue.

My understanding is we want to provide opportunity for all students, and I think that's the driving force is to provide opportunity across the board.

It's too early to know.

I think that bill is going to originate in the House.

We'll wait and see where it goes.

Lindsay Aerts: We have to lower the temperature and find out what DEI offices actually do.

Jason Perry: This is one we'll be talking about more on the show and in public.

Thank you for your insights this evening, and thank you for watching "The Hinckley Report."

We look forward to seeing you next week.

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